TrendForce Consulting: The low level of original factory inventory supports continued increase in memory prices in the third quarter

TrendForce, a global market research firm, said that driven by the active inventory preparation of various end buyers in the first half of this year, the original inventory of memory was low, and the average inventory of DRAM original factories was only 3 to 4 weeks; the average inventory of NAND Flash suppliers was relatively low. For 4 to 5 weeks. In the face of server customers who want to strengthen their purchasing power in the third quarter, the original manufacturer has no need to reduce prices for various memory products. Therefore, TrendForce forecasts that the overall DRAM price in the third quarter will continue to increase by about 3~8 %; NAND Flash is affected by the rising demand for enterprise SSD and wafer, and the overall price quarterly increase will increase from the original 3-8% to 5-10%.

Production target is revised down, high memory inventory may become a hidden worry for mobile phone brand factories in the second half of the year

From the perspective of the storage inventory of end customers, there are two situations in the smartphone and notebook sectors that the market is most concerned about. In terms of mobile phones, the current inventory of DRAM and NAND Flash of various brand factories is at a high level of 8-10 weeks, mainly due to the impact of the second wave of the recent epidemic in India, which has reduced the annual growth rate of global production from 9.4% to 8.5%. To. However, some brand factories in China have recently begun to lower their production targets, and have entered the cycle of adjusting the length of the material inventory. Coupled with the two new factors of the second outbreak of the Southeast Asian epidemic that have reduced production and consumption power, it is likely to replace the high-water inventory in the second half of the year. Mobile phone brand factories add another hidden worry.

The average DRAM inventory of PC OEM factories is up to 10 weeks, which will converge to PC DRAM growth in the second half of the year

In terms of laptops, the current average inventory of DRAM in PC OEM factories is 8-10 weeks, and some PC OEM factories have more than this level. The main reason is that this year's laptop market demand will continue to benefit from the house economy effect, and the number of units produced will look at 238 million units. , An annual increase of 14.3%, but it is affected by several components that are obviously out of stock in the upstream, such as audio codec, analog IC, power control chip (Power IC), microcontroller (MCU) and LED driver Due to the impact of chips (LED driver) and other factors, the purchaser is also worried that memory will become a gap that will prevent the production of terminals. Therefore, the purchase volume has been increased significantly in the first half of this year. However, NAND Flash continues to be limited by the shortage of controller ICs, and the inventory is lower than DRAM, with an average inventory of 4 to 5 weeks.

Overall, TrendForce expects that in the second half of the year, Chinese smartphone brand manufacturers will slow down their purchases of mobile DRAM and NAND Flash, but demand for other terminal applications is still strong, so the overall memory contract price is still not easy to fall. In the PC and NB fields, the subsequent changes in the fulfillment rate of short material supply will become an indicator for PC OEM manufacturers to begin to review their long material inventory. It is worth noting that due to the high DRAM inventory of PC OEM factories, the The growth rate of PC DRAM in half a year will therefore significantly converge.