[Market View] Graphics DRAM contract market supply is still tight in the third quarter, and the price is estimated to continue to rise by 8~13%|TrendForce TrendForce

According to a survey conducted by TrendForce, a global market research organization, the trend of graphics DRAM in the contract and spot markets is very different recently, and the contract market is still in short supply. Not only the quotations continue to rise, but the order fulfillment rate of some small and medium-sized customers is only about 30%. This is expected The tight supply and demand situation will continue into the third quarter, and the graphics DRAM contract price will rise again by 8~13%. As for the spot field, from the beginning of this year to mid-May, due to the rising virtual currency, the demand for new and old graphics cards has risen sharply. When the price is the highest, the spot price may even be 200% higher than the contract price. Therefore, if the virtual currency has not returned to its previous grand occasion, it is expected that the price difference between the graphics DRAM spot and the contract price in the third quarter will be narrowed in the case of low demand for graphics cards from miners.

From the perspective of the contract market, there are four main reasons for its continued growth. The first is that the PC market demand does not fall, especially for e-sports-related products; the second is that NVIDIA continues to adopt a combination of GPU and graphics DRAM sales strategy, so Can obtain a larger amount of original source of goods, and then crowd out other customers. Third, both XBOX Series X and PS5 game consoles are equipped with GDDR6 16Gb instead of 8Gb, which is mainly used by graphics cards, which means that the two cannot be converted to each other after the original production volume is finalized. Fourth, as server DRAM orders continue to pick up, the original manufacturers will still give priority to satisfying the mainstream market. As the supply-side production capacity is crowded out, graphics DRAM contract prices are still bullish, especially small and medium OEMs and ODMs may still face double-digit increases. .

Due to the sharp drop in virtual currencies, the spot prices of GDDR5 and GDDR6 both fell

From the point of view of the spot market, although GDDR6 has declined since last month, the premium is still nearly doubled compared to the contract price; GDDR5 is almost the same as the contract price. In addition to the previous high spot and contract spreads, the main reason for the overall decline was the weakening demand for virtual currencies. Affected by the recent fall in the price of virtual currency, mining incentives have been greatly reduced. As a result, old graphics cards such as NVIDIA GTX 1660 with GDDR5, without other terminal demand to make up for the demand gap, caused the price of GDDR5 to plummet; but for new graphics cards , Because there is still support for the basic needs of e-sports players, and the graphics DRAM and game consoles they need are all GDDR6. Therefore, in the spot market, due to the support of GDDR6 demand, its decline is also lower than that of GDDR5.